While there have been many discussions surrounding the slow recovery of the box office since the pandemic started back in 2020, there have been some massive successes even through these unpredictable times. Spider-Man: No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick went on to break far past any expectations set on the projects, and there has been a lot of hope that Avatar: The Way of Water would do exactly the same later this year. It’s the first sequel to James Cameron‘s passion project from 2009. While the film is set to make a big splash in the box office, it may not surpass its predecessor.
Variety’s early predictions based on Cinelytic believe that The Way of Water is likely to make around $650M but likely won’t come near the first Avatar‘s $772M. The reasonings are quite simple. A lot has happened since that film was released and we’ve seen quite a few CG-heavy worlds being created. So, it’s no longer as unique as it once was, as we’ve entered an era inspired by the technology that was established through that film’s release.
If it does end up going below $700M, it’ll also remain in the second spot for 2022, as Top Gun: Maverick managed to pass the $700M mark not too long ago and still continues to have a strong staying power at the box office. Black Panther Wakanda Forever was predicted to not even make it past the $500M mark but early projections for the Top Gun sequel also had it set for a lower $300M box office run. At this rate, there are a lot of unpredictable elements at play and we’ll have to see how the rest of the year turns out with very little hitting the market moving forward.