Murphy's Multiverse

Tag: Box Office

  • ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Claws Up Biggest R-Rated Opening Weekend Ever

    ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Claws Up Biggest R-Rated Opening Weekend Ever

    Marvel once again fatigues its way to some record-breaking numbers, but this time in a category many thought they’d never read the names “Marvel Studios” and “Disney.” With the release of Deadpool & Wolverine, they have now managed to win the biggest R-rated opening box office weekend ever with a whopping $205M. That makes it the eighth-highest opening ahead of Black Panther and trailing slightly behind The Avengers. It’s crazy to think that in all this time only nine films ever passed that $200M mark and this is the first time an R-Rated film managed such a feat.

    It has also skipped over Deadpool and Deadpool 2′s opening weekends, which each made respective $132M and $125M which were massive for the time for R-rated before Joker went on to make a good streak. It also marks the biggest opening of the year overtaking Inside Out 2, which had a debut of $155M and now is the highest-earning animated film ever. It’s a good sign after many films seemingly struggled last and this year, but may be a bigger sign that July is the new May for the summer box office.

    Internationally, the film made $438M so it’s definitely going to be a smash at the box office and help make up some of the issues that plagued the studio last year with The Marvels and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Though ignoring online discourse, it was a rough year overall for major releases and the strikes just hit the box office harder than one would expect. It does open the question if this is a similar surprise hit with Spider-Man: No Way Home given the leads and audiences simply care more for nostalgia than original continuations.

    Deadpool & Wolverine had initial expectations at $160M so that jump is quite massive after it made $96M on its opening day alone. What is also going to boost its numbers is the impressive A CinemaScore ranking which is quite unusual given how general audiences tend to react towards R-rated films. So, the Deadpool film being a crowd-pleaser with its humor goes against many online reactions stating people will be mixed on it. So, we’re continuing to see a stronger dissonance between X and TikTok reactions against the global reactions. The big question is: how far can it go and is a billion on its radar moving into its second weekend?

    Source: Variety

  • ‘Wish’ Underperforms as ‘Hunger Games’ and ‘Napoleon Surprise at the Box Office

    ‘Wish’ Underperforms as ‘Hunger Games’ and ‘Napoleon Surprise at the Box Office

    The fall box office is rough, that’s certainly sure now. Though, not for everyone. In a surprise twist, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes seemingly pulled in a stronger second weekend than expected even with a B+ CinemaScore; further adding to its validity for telling movie’s legs nowadays given Five Nights at Freddy’s had an A- and just crashed in its second weekend. However, the film was also promoted by its cast before the premiere due to getting a waiver during the strikes,w which likely gave it a bit of a boost. It added $28.8M over the weekend (a 38% drop) and generally had a $42M run over the Thanksgiving holiday.

    The Marvels‘ managed to pull in $6.4M over the weekend with $9.2M in the holidays, which is putting it on a path to be the first MCU film to make less than $100M. Still, a 37% drop after its first massive drop is a much better hold than Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s 60% and The Flash’s 65%. If it manages to surprise and hold a bit better it could still surprise but that just depends on if Marvel Studios and Disney decided to drop it before Christmas as an early gift for subscribers (which wouldn’t be new for them). Plus it had quite a bit of competition with two new releases and the other three from last weekend. Not going to change much but still worth noting.

    The true disappointment of the weekend is, however, that Disney’s 100-year celebration release Wish only earned $35M over the weekend and pulled in $45M in the Thanksgiving timeframe. It’s miles ahead of Strange World from last year which opened to $18M, but it’s definitely not close to where Encanto was two years prior. It only opened in 27 markets overseas, which means its global tally is $49M as most of the slate this year has underperformed with very high budgets and the fall doesn’t come with that summer bonus. It does have an A- CinemaScore but glancing at Hunger Games and Five Nights at Freddy’s, who knows how valuable that really is.

    It may be a general issue with Disney+ showcasing a similar effect with Five Nights at Freddy’s second-weekend drop. If Wish faces a similar development, it showcases that audiences are going to need some time before they adjust to the new non-45-day release schedule on streaming platforms. Plus, Disney turned its own films into “wait and see” releases with its overall push into streaming. It’ll take time and focus to heal, which will likely happen but has shown its thorns in 2023; an overall detrimental year for blockbuster releases.

    The surprise was Napoleon who opened to $78.8M worldwide and had a $21M weekend opening with $32.5M over its first five days. Yet, it continues the trend of a $200M budget for a film that is massively underperforming to cover its bill similar to Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which stands at $151M globally. The comparison with superhero flicks is commonly that those are made for all age audiences and is also a point made by Variety, but given that many point to Oppenheimer as the “cinematic revival” of long-films with R ratings doing well at the box office: the point becomes far more difficult as that film’s success is looking more and more like an exception.

    One thing continues to dominate the box office: it is struggling and while Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian points out that it’s doing better than the last few years and sees it as “encouraging,” it’s very likely that studios are going to avoid this timeslot moving forward if things don’t change with high-budget releases. The fall box office is looking grim overall, as even the second entry to the billion-dollar Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is going to premiere quite low and who knows if it’ll actually enjoy a holiday boost given just how volatile this year has been.

    Source: Variety Deadline, Deadline

  • ‘Aquaman’ Sequel’s Box Office Projected at $32M to $42M

    ‘Aquaman’ Sequel’s Box Office Projected at $32M to $42M

    Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’s early projections are in and it looks like the fall box office continues to be questionable moving forward. Early projections by Box Office Pro are hinting at an opening weekend that matches the rest of the year so far, as it may open between $32M to $42M. That is quite a drop and even lower than The Marvel’s opening just a few weeks ago.

    The only difference is that Aquaman sequel has the holiday legs in its favor given it’s releasing over the Holidays. Yet, even the reliable holiday season has become questionable as Thanksgiving isn’t giving many major releases a bigger push than some were hoping to see from their newest high-budget releases like Wish and Napoleon.

    It’s starting to look like the original pre-COVID mapping of massive projects released in the fall is starting to drop. There’s not a lot of box office to gain here given recent numbers, but 2023 is generally been a detrimental box office disaster across the board. Many are pointing at the classic “superhero fatigue” but considering just how many productions have been hit, it seems like the year was just overstuffed and the price of admission was simply to high if there wasn’t a reason.

    Outside of a few exceptions (this year’s Top 10 tells you everything you need to know about 2023), the year wasn’t kind to any new release and we’ll likely see a change in how they handle it. Sony is currently dedicated to pushing out as many projects as possible while Marvel Studios took a step back. Disney has reshuffled its schedule and not much is known about the rest. So, we’ll see what the future holds.

    Source: Box Office Pro

  • ‘The Marvels’ Drops by 78% as ‘The Hunger Games’ Prequel Underperforms

    ‘The Marvels’ Drops by 78% as ‘The Hunger Games’ Prequel Underperforms

    It’s not looking great for the fall line-up so far. All eyes will be on The Marvels’ historic drop, which pulled in 10.2M over its second weekend. That makes a 78% drop and the highest for any Hollywood superhero film to date. That is saying a lot considering just how bad this year has been. There was hope that it might hold a bit stronger given its core audience shifted with this project, but the two new releases might’ve hurt it more than expected.

    Even with decent word-of-mouth, The Marvels had a core audience with more female and younger audiences, who showed up for two other releases this weekend. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes was released to a tepid B+ CinemaScore and had the lowest opening for the franchise. It’s even far lower than the initial predictions at $44M after being expected with around $55M to even going beyond $60M earlier this week.

    That film skewed heavily toward females, an audience with a bigger affinity for the latest MCU release. Even Trolls Band Together with an A CinemaScore pulled in around $30.6M which is lower than the first release and isn’t breaking initial predictions. It stands at a strong $76.3M in international markets, which gives it a good boost as well.

    The Marvel‘s global is doing alright with it pulling in $19.5M and standing at $96.3M. It’s currently at $161.3M and the question will be where it lands moving forward. As of now, it might not break $100M domestically and depending on its third weekend could fall short of hitting $200M worldwide. If it does see a bit of a boost, it might make it a bit lower than The Flash earlier this year.

    It should be pointed out that The Marvels‘ drop is only slightly higher than that of Five Nights at Freddy’s not too long ago, which dropped 76% in its second weekend. That film even had an A- CinemaScore and perhaps we’ll see something similar happen to The Hunger Games next weekend. That Cost of Living Crisis is showing its fangs before the holiday season and we’ll see if any other releases in the coming month or so will manage to make up for it.

    Source: THR

  • ‘Hunger Games’ Prequel Opens to Franchise Low as ‘The Marvels’ Hits Record Low for Genre

    ‘Hunger Games’ Prequel Opens to Franchise Low as ‘The Marvels’ Hits Record Low for Genre

    Seems that the fall cinematic line-up is having a hard time picking up with even pandemic standards. We’ve seen a number of projects flounder at the box office that would’ve been surefire wins but are barely even managing to open to 50M or falling below initial projections. The only exception was the fan-frontloaded Five Nights at Freddy’s that swiftly plummeted in its second weekend.

    The same effect is hitting The Marvels which had the franchise’s lowest opening and now seemingly the lowest second weekend as well. Promotion by the cast only slowly started throughout the week, which was hopeful to give the film some room to improve a bit but it’s not seemingly working.

    Predictions saw that the new releases wouldn’t have too much of an audience overlap, but it also just seems like audiences aren’t really coming back for a second weekend this fall. If The Hunger Games prequel faces a similar drop in its second weekend with a B+ score, we might be looking at a really rough fall release schedule ahead.

    Expectations were that The Marvels from The Numbers’ prediction would land at $20,4M in its second weekend with a soft drop of 56% and their algorithms are pretty on point, as The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is heading towards their predicted $45M after many even claimed it could go as high as $60M. That would place it slightly lower than even The Marvels with the only caveat being it has a $100M price tag.

    So, it’ll be interesting to see if that second weekend drop is going to stand out or not. Even many try to put a selective positive spin on what amounts to the worst opening in The Hunger Games franchise with this opening being about a third of the original Hunger Games that opened to 152M back in 2012. The production budget is a fair point to this not being a bad opener but still oddly how different the framing is compared to last weekend.

    The Marvels opened to 2.8M on Friday, and unless it suddenly gets a pick up it’ll likely fall under $10M which could post it towards the worst second weekend after this year’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Even Eternals had a stronger hold on a B CinemaScore during the pandemic, but perhaps we’re seeing more and more the Cost of Living Crisis affect audiences’ decisions on middling word-of-mouth and an eventual streaming release.

    The only thing will be if this film ends up making $100M domestically, as of now the film could’ve either gone the same direction as Elemental and surprised with a stronger hold or ended up dropping like The Flash. Now, it’s even lower than that as it dropped around 72% in its second weekend. That means the film is likely not going to hit 100M domestically. So we could be looking at a lower than $200M box office run if the international box office sees a similar development.

    It’s even lower than BoxOffice Pro, which had it at around 16M though for The Marvels. Promotion started this week and only gave the film a bit of energy going into the weekend, but it’s definitely hard to make up for lost time that swiftly. There’s of course the hope it would make a dent and perhaps hold it going into its second weekend but we’ll have to see how the coming weeks go for the franchise.

    One thing to note as THR points out, Hunger Games and the new Trolls film both skewed heavily female and there’s a good chance that that is what took a big chunk out of the latest MCU release. It had a much stronger reception with female audiences and that would’ve been the ones to keep it going but with not one but two films released hitting that demographic, it may have been a poor placing on Disney’s part as well with decent word-of-mouth not being enough to carry it through the current prices and competition.

    Source: Variety, The Numbers, The Numbers (Hunger Games), Box Office Pro, THR

  • ‘The Marvels’ Debuts With Disappointing $110M Worldwide

    ‘The Marvels’ Debuts With Disappointing $110M Worldwide

    The Marvels is off to a slower start across all markets as the film has pulled in $63.3M internationally and a disappointing $47M domestically. That puts the latest Marvel Cinematic Universe outing at a total opening weekend of $110.3M, which marks the lowest the franchise has ever faced. Sadly, the film hasn’t had any momentum throughout the weekend and ended up on the lower end of Saturday’s estimates, but it hasn’t crashed as hard as some expected going in with the Thursday preview numbers.

    Still, it’s a far cry from the $70M predicted a few weeks ago and initially set for around $80M worldwide. So, we didn’t quite make the jump to the $140M. The social scores seem quite decent but the lack of urgency to check out the movie in theaters is hurting it. That B CinemaScore is not helping matters and it seems the film might fizzle out around the same The Flash did earlier in the year; though that had the promotion from its cast marking this a very different situation.

    Variety states that audiences “flat-out rejected” the film but don’t back it up on why this is a fact. However, the problem remains with its $220M budget and $100M marketing costs (likely cheaper given they didn’t have to organize a lot for the cast involved). Though Variety also seems to have a bone to pick with the studio ever since they dropped that debunked article. Though as CNBC points out there’s hope that legs could still carry the film closer to breaking even with the Thanksgiving holidays don’t he horizon.

    Despite posting the lowest domestic debut for the MCU, ‘The Marvels’ proved once again the importance of the international marketplace for the Marvel brand. The film will now rely on Thanksgiving holiday corridor moviegoing to help move the big budget superhero film closer to profitability and help to determine the film’s ultimate success at the box office.

    Paul Dergarabedian, Senior Media Analyst (Comscore)

    One thing is clear: there’s a lot of debate online on what exactly happened here. While it got the usual lower CinemaScore, online chatter has been on the uprise since the film was released in theaters. The fact that they had a last-minute debut for Brie Larson on a talk show the day after release isn’t going to randomly sway things even if some are pointing to “promotion taking place anyway.” There’s also the discussion of “being good” not being enough for a film to do well at the box office nowadays as they have become more selective.

    Some are pointing to Oppenheimer and Barbie taking place during the strikes and making bank, but those films were released on July 21st and the SAG AFTRA strike started on July 14th. So, they technically had all the momentum already built up going into the release, and isn’t a fair comparison given that the actors were only able to start after it was in cinemas. Just odd to see that comparison as momentum was definitely carried into the film once it was made available.

    There’s also the streaming factor that has plagued Marvel releases since Disney trained audiences they can always wait 45 days before checking it out if it’s not a “must-see” event similar to Barbenheimer or Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. There has been a slow pushback on it but it’ll take time to allow audiences to adapt to this new normal once again. Something highlighted by Five Nights at Freddy’s continuing to just drop as fast it can at the box office with another 53% drop domestically, but it still managed to pass the $250M mark internationally.

    One thing that also stands out is that the box office is in such a state that even with such a disappointing opening for Marvel’s standards it remains at the top spot given how low others are performing. As mentioned in the last analysis, the “bomb” that was Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania also remains the tenth highest-grossing film of the year. It’ll likely be analyzed for many years to come and the big question is what is Marvel’s future once 2024 rolls around.

    CNBC’s article shares a curious statement from Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com, that highlights that as much as this snag will hurt Marvel Studios: it may be just the changing point from everything it had to endure moving forward:

    If any IP has the depth and capability to do that, it’s Marvel under the leadership of Kevin Feige and his teams. This is certainly a crossroads moment from a creative and business standpoint. Perhaps the relative slowdown in Marvel content next year will provide a healthy and necessary buffer for the studio, for Disney, and for audiences.

    Shawn Robbins

    Source: Deadline, Variety

  • ‘The Marvels’ Projected for Weak $140M Worldwide Opening

    ‘The Marvels’ Projected for Weak $140M Worldwide Opening

    Currently, projections are down for The Marvels given that the presales didn’t pick up much speed over the course of the last few weeks. It remains a surprise that Marvel Studios didn’t risk pushing the project back further given the current climate and uncertainty surrounding the SAG-AFTRA strike ending anytime soon and how important the main cast is to the film. Yet, it could also be that pushing it back again would’ve made the project even more expensive moving forward.

    Initial local projections went from $60M down to $50M, though some even had it at a potential $70M – $80M. BoxOfficePro has also lowered expectations at a potential $45M to $65M opening weekend with a domestic total of $109M. That would put it on track where The Flash ended up and could mean that the film will definitely not make up its $250M production budget at the box office alone.

    Is it superhero fatigue? At this point, it doesn’t really matter what it is as the box office in general is struggling. Five Nights at Freddy’s second weekend plummeted in the worst weekend we’ve seen in a long time after a big frontloading by fans. It had a strong forecast going by early presales which is why The Marvels is currently faltering as it seemed to not pick up any pace in the earlier weeks, but also hasn’t had a lot of output by Marvel Studios or Disney outside of a big final trailer push yesterday.

    The strikes are definitely hurting this film as its main selling point was the trio cast at the forefront, which was a no-show during any of the film promotions. That means no showcase during talk shows, interviews, or anything else one would hope to promote their film with. Even the long-awaited prequel to The Hunger Games is looking at a soft $38M to $50M opening currently. Who knows if this fall is going to be just a depressing reflection of the summer box office?

    Globally, the predictions stand at a $140M opening worldwide, which is on par with what The Flash had in the summer (taking into context an off-season release it hurts just a smidge less than one of the expected biggest blockbuster releases). The big questions in the room are the initial reactions to the film, which are expected to drop some time tonight, and the reviews. As mentioned previously: people are a bit more frugal with their money and after going all-in with Barbenheimer, viewers may be a bit more cautious going into the rest of the year as inflation and the cost of living crisis is a big factor in decision-making nowadays. Plus, if it releases on Disney+ in the coming months it hurts far less than spending upwards of $40 bucks to go to the movies.

    It’s not an excuse and it will stand to reason that The Marvels could potentially end up as the worst box office opening for any MCU release so far. Even lower than Eternals which had to fight off COVID during its initial release, but also benefitted from far fewer releases in theaters. It all depends on those previews as if they open to around $6M on Thursday, the film could face a $40M opening weekend. It all depends on word-of-mouth and reviews ahead of time; something Marvel Studios hasn’t been dependent on in a long time.

    A big point is that men in the age range of 18 to 34 are the key factor for most Marvel releases, but, oddly, expectations are purely on this demographic given the film’s very strong female leads. If the film hits the right cords with its core audience, women between 17 and 34 could make up for that fact as they are closer to what the film is aiming for going by its leads and core demographic. That may also be one of the reasons its unusual presales core audience isn’t really invested given the current (depressing) political climate. Perhaps showing a special trailer ahead of Taylor Swift’s films may turn out as a surprise push for the release. For now, we have to wait and see just a few more days until the numbers give us a clearer picture.

    Source: BoxOfficePro, Deadline, The Numbers

  • ‘The Marvels’ Presales Currently Behind ‘The Flash’ and ‘Black Adam’

    ‘The Marvels’ Presales Currently Behind ‘The Flash’ and ‘Black Adam’

    At the current rate, The Marvels‘ may be facing the lowest opening since The Eternals,w which opened to $71.2M during the pandemic. Of course, it’s not definite but the presales are currently tracing behind Black Adam and The Flash according to a new piece by Deadline. It’s the first MCU film truly affected by the strike, as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was still able to promote with its cast before SAG went on strike as well. There’s also the hot debate regarding Marvel and superhero fatigue with the latter showing its fangs with other releases like Blue Beetle, Shazam: Fury of Gods, and The Flash.

    Marvel normally pulls in viewership and has strong openings with bigger drops going into its second weekend. So, it’s unclear if it’ll pick up the pace going into its final week, especially with hopes that the SAG strike is wrapped this weekend and the cast can start promoting the film. Whether that’ll make a major change is a different point of discussion and remains surprising that Marvel Studios has yet to postpone the release.

    Some are pointing to the “homework” aspect which is a hot debate online. It’s hard to believe that those expectations are set by non-online viewers given that we’re introduced to a variety of characters in films for the first time and not everyone watches every single MCU project faithfully.

    Of course, there’s also the potential that current film visits are closer to a “wait and see” approach rather than going all-in with presales. While Five Nights at Freddy’s managed to pull in strong numbers, they were above the initial expectations due to strong word-of-mouth. The same could also go for the MCU’s latest entry. So, all eyes are going to be on those reviews which are also only going to drop shortly before the release. For now, we can only wait until the film releases with the first Thursday preview numbers and its Friday box office hinting at where the film will end.

    Source: Deadline

  • ‘Five Nights at Freddy’s’ Facing a Harsh 78% Drop in its Second Weekend

    ‘Five Nights at Freddy’s’ Facing a Harsh 78% Drop in its Second Weekend

    Five Nights at Freddy’s had a record-breaking opening for a horror film, which some believed was the highlight of the continued rise of video game adaptations. While it’ll take some time before people get tired of these adaptations, it seems that fans have front-loaded the latest entry quite a bit. As of now, the horror adaptation is going to have a second weekend at around $17.8M. That would mark a painful 78% drop.

    The weekend is looking to be quite slow in general, especially as Dune Part 2 was delayed from its original release date due to the writer’s strike. Still, it’s not a good sign for day-and-date streaming releases to remain a thing moving forward, but there’s also a good chance that the film generally was frontloaded by fans similar to what we’ve seen with Marvel films throughout the last few years since the pandemic.

    The rest of the weekend isn’t looking too great. Taylor Swift: Eras Tour is still at the second spot with $12M to $15M, which is a stronghold so far. Killers of the Flower Moon dropped to $6.5M which isn’t too bad given it’s initially a streaming release but given its $200M price tag still stings a bit. Priscilla also opens this weekend with a minor release with around $5M, which will put it on the fourth spot.

    Source: Hollywood Reporter

  • ‘The Marvels’ Box Office Tracking Towards Potential $75M+ Opening

    ‘The Marvels’ Box Office Tracking Towards Potential $75M+ Opening

    The headlines surrounding The Marvels are surprisingly harsher than you’d expect from a tentpole summer release like The Flash. DC’s general struggle this summer has led to some mixed feelings on what the future has in store for the superhero genre yet other releases seem to hint that the genre isn’t fully out. At the same time, there are enough examples throughout the entire summer that blockbuster fatigue is a bigger issue looming over cinemas going into a strike-affected 2024.

    The current projection for The Marvels have been a bit all over the place. Box Office Pro has a more subdued $50M with a high point of $70M. Its pre-sales trackings are quite a bit behind other Marvel tentpoles, especially 2023 releases. It also simply be a showcase that the frontloading era these films have enjoyed fizzled out early on, as even Elemental proves there are still some legs for Disney releases.

    Projections by The Hollywood Reporter are a bit more positive with a potential high of $80M for the Marvel Studios release, which may be quite a bit behind the initial Captain Marvel with its $153.4M. Three female leads are a big selling point of the project, especially after the success of Barbie a few months back It also grew from its initial $70M prediction but word-of-mouth is going to be the deciding factor here. However, the fact that its leads can’t actually promote the film is likely a huge factor.

    What also seems to be easily forgotten is that Captain Marvel enjoyed the build-up towards Avengers: Endgame and her potentially major role in that franchise “ender” as some claim it was. So, we might be seeing what the film originally might have opened to plus the name-change could also be a factor that people aren’t seeing it necessarily as a sequel even if trailers try to highlight that aspect (to be fair, barely any MCU entry acts like a true sequel but rather just an additional chapter for a specific character).

    Is it the end of Marvel Studios? Who knows at this point, but they are still holding on better than DC is with a questionable reboot. What everyone believed was the “biggest flop” of the year with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania turned out to be a high bar barely any major release would reach. Even after the summer blockbuster, the film remains the eight highest-grosser of the year domestically.

    The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Barbie were the exceptions rather than the rule this summer which saw major franchises like The Flash, Dungeons & Dragons, Shazam, Transformers, Indiana Jones, Blue Beetle, and even Mission Impossible fizzle out with huge post-COVID budgets. Exhibitors should be more scared that going to the movies is becoming a rarer occurrence and relying on two or three tentpoles per year is not going to keep the box office afloat long-term; even if some are hailing the end of superhero movies and its fatigue discussions.

    Source: Box Office Pro, The Hollywood Reporter, The Numbers