The numbers are finally in and it looks like even with what some deem mixed word-of-mouth, the film has already pulled in $300M worldwide. While the film is on the lower end of its predictions, the film pulled in $143M domestically, which is certainly shy of the $150M to $170M projections. In a way, it’s closer to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2‘s release which is fitting given some of the discussions surrounding the latest entry. Still, the film has pulled in the third highest opening of the year just behind fellow Marvel release Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Jurassic World: Dominion, which it was only $2M shy of passing it.
As pointed out by Forbes Scott Mendelsohn, July releases aren’t as dominant as the pre-summer blockbuster releases and have showcased better legs. What is helping Marvel’s latest release is the fact that its only four-quadrant competition will be Black Adam in late October. While the smaller jump of 17% from Thor: Ragnarok isn’t their usual power push but the film wasn’t sold in the same way as the franchise changers like Captain America: Civil War and Multiverse of Madness.
Even if it’s on the lower end of projections, closer to the conservative ones from Marvel and Disney, the big question is where does it head from here. A harsh drop in the second weekend has become a norm for the franchise, but if it does end up sticking around 60% like Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp could get it to $400M. Yet, that B+ CinemaScore is likely going to drag it down a bit as those films bounced back. Yet, the lack of any real competition outside of Bullet Train and still ongoing power players Minions 2 and Top Gun Maverick.
At the moment, it does seem like the film will likely end domestically somewhere beyond $300M domestically. The film is also still showing a strong international release and won’t find its way to China and Russia, where the previous entry made around $135M. So, if the current film passes $715M worldwide it’ll still be a strong showing alongside other releases this year like No Time to Die ($774M) and The Batman ($770M). So the lowest bar to pass would be F9‘s $721M.