Indiana Jones is a household name and while it’s a franchise that has way more breaks between releases than others, the nostalgia factor alone would seem like the perfect draw for audiences. Yet, it seems that even Harrison Ford’s return to the iconic role isn’t going to be putting a lot of butts in the cinemas. As of now, the film seems to be heading to a $65M opening weekend in 4,500 theaters.
Globally, it’s not looking too much larger as it’s heading towards $80M with a potential total of $150M worldwide. Now, that isn’t a terrible start mind you but the issue lies in the fact that the film costs around $295M. That is excluding marketing and promotion costs, which makes it the most expensive entry in the franchise. So, the film has a long shot at turning a profit.
It’s also set to open below Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, which pulled in $100M in May of 2008. That film went on to make $790M globally and remains the highest-grossing entry of the franchise. James Mangold is taking over from Steven Spielberg with Dial of Destiny, but it seems a mixed reception from critics due to a risky Cannes showcase that may be backfiring on Disney and Lucasfilm.
The film could still make a decent amount but it would need to make at least 600M to cover its production budget with another 200M minimum to cover its marketing budget, which might be far more expensive than we think. So, it’s a high gamble from Disney and who knows if they’ll be willing to do the same. This lower opening also continues to highlight that what some are trying to call superhero fatigue is affecting the entire blockbuster scene. Did theaters overestimate how ready audiences are set to return?