Murphy's Multiverse

Tag: NBA

  • Key Questions for Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs

    Key Questions for Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs

    As a competitive Round One of the NBA Playoffs wraps up, we preview the Round Two matchups by asking one question about each team. These are all title-caliber defensive teams, which means there will be some tough, physical basketball to come, and scoring will be at a premium.

    Eastern Conference

    Miami Heat

    Are the Heat Contenders or Overachievers? Despite earning the 1-seed in the East, people don’t seem to put a lot of respect on their name. Their infamous clipboard feud in the last week of the season made them look like a team in disarray. They had just enough daylight in the standings, and Brooklyn looming as a play-in obstacle, that the other East contenders rested down the stretch, proving they had little fear of coming to Miami in the Conference Finals. Before Game 1 of the playoffs many books gave them the fifth best odds in the East.  But this is a team just two years removed from a Finals appearance. Butler and Lowry (when healthy) have been here before and play consistently, so their young support players (mostly Herro and Robinson) will determine if they can put up enough points to make it back.

    Philadelphia 76ers

    Is James Harden still a Top-10 player in the league? Sixers fans breathed a huge sigh of relief when they put away the Raptors in Game 6 and avoided conversations about losing a 3-0 lead. News broke late that when Embiid took an elbow to the face, he suffered a concussion and broke an orbital bone. Joel just wrapped a second season where he will finish Top-2 in the MVP voting, and there is no timetable set for his return. All eyes turn to Harden, who has gone long stretches where it feels like he lost a step and just can’t get to the basket at an elite level. Then he bounces back with 22 and 15 on 40% from 3. He wants one last contract where he is paid like an MVP-caliber player, and that is what this Philly team needs him to be. Miami has a stingy defense behind a good coach, and they will throw young wings at him much like Toronto did. They will hunt him on the other end to get easier points and wear him out. If he leaks points on one end or goes 2-11 again, the max contract he will demand this offseason is not going to look all that palatable.

    Boston Celtics

    Will the Boston defense hold up against Giannis and the Bucks? The book on Kevin Durant has been that he will get his, but you need players that make him work for it. Boston did the unthinkable and actually shut him down. Can the C’s defense have the same impact on Giannis? If Rob Williams can get back to full strength, it will bolster a frontcourt that has lots of switchable big men. Their backcourt has really clamped down, and I expect we will see them send defenders to double Giannis as a rule. Boston had historic advanced metrics after the calendar turned to the new year. Now it will be asked to shut down a second MVP-caliber player to prove it was not a fluke.

    Milwaukee Bucks

    Will the Bucks regret giving Boston the 2-seed? Everyone believes that as the playoff picture emerged, the Bucks took their foot off the gas to avoid a potential rematch with the Nets in the 2/7 matchup. Well the Nets fizzled out, and Milwaukee cruised past the flagging Bulls. Now the Bucks, who lost some role players that wanted to get paid after getting their ring, head to Boston to continue their title defense. They looked at times this year like they might be coasting a little bit, waiting for the playoffs to flip the switch. With Middleton looking more and more likely to miss this entire series, are the Bucks going to find themselves wishing they had home court advantage for crucial Games 5 and 7? 

    Western Conference 

    Phoenix Suns

    Is Booker’s hamstring going to approach 100%? The Suns’ ceiling was title favorite, but the Booker injury, and dropping a few games to the feisty Pelicans, brought them back down to the pack. Booker was surprisingly able to play way ahead of schedule in a Game 6 return, and he had decent numbers while playing on a minutes restriction. But it seems like the hamstring is one of those injuries that gets setbacks very frequently. Dallas no doubt plans to make him work on the defensive end, behind the arc where they did the most damage to the Jazz in their matchup. At their best, the Mavs had a suffocating defense this year. Booker’s scoring will mean the difference between moving one step closer to another Finals appearance, or going home early and making some hard decisions about this roster.

    Dallas Mavericks

    Will Jalen Brunson come back down to Earth? When it looked like Luka Doncic was going to miss the series, everyone wondered if the rest of the team would step up. Brunson carved up the Utah defense, scoring about 28 ppg (he averaged 16 ppg during the regular season). But his percentages in the series are in line with his normal numbers; he managed to keep his same efficiency while getting a bigger usage. When Doncic returned, Brunson kept contributing, dishing out assists and keeping turnovers to a minimum. Because he was a second round draft pick, he is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. He made himself quite a bit of money this season with his improvement, and shouldering the load against the Jazz definitely didn’t hurt. A strong series against the 1-seed Suns could propel him into a max contract this summer.

    Memphis Grizzlies

    Is this young team ready to make some playoff noise? It is not lost on me that this Memphis team is going up against the Warriors, who found themselves in a similar position in 2014. One year after making the second round, they went up against a veteran Clippers team and lost in 7. Conventional wisdom is that young teams have to take their lumps in the playoffs to elevate to that elite level and join the real contenders. These Grizzlies are not afraid of anyone, as Ja Morant’s monster jams and their 20-point comebacks have proved. Going up against the second coming of the Golden State dynasty, they have an opportunity to stake their claim as a serious contender, but even if they lose they are getting the kind of playoff experience that can prepare young teams for greatness.

    Golden State Warriors

    Should the Warriors be considered the title favorites? When Steph Curry went down with a lower leg injury late in the season, it seemed like this team was never going to get everyone on the court at the same time. Draymond missed an extended period after the new year, and their Big Three did not get much time together this year. As they dropped out of the second place in the West and were even threatened by Dallas for the 3 seed, speculation started about who could be moved to bolster their stars. But this is a team that has so much experience, they returned to top form immediately. Jordan Poole’s emergence is a great story, and it gives Steve Kerr the flexibility to bring Curry off the bench as maybe the best sixth man ever. They dispatched a Denver squad that was very thin outside of Jokic. Memphis has so many more weapons, and will provide a much tougher test of Golden State.

  • The NBA’s Dearly Departed: Brooklyn Nets Edition

    The NBA’s Dearly Departed: Brooklyn Nets Edition

    As teams in the NBA Playoffs get eliminated, Murphy’s Multiverse takes a look at their prospects for next season. The Brooklyn Nets were just swept by the Boston Celtics. What will it take for them to become real title contenders next season?

    Notable Free Agents

    • Guard Kyrie Irving (player option)
    • Guard Patty Mills (player option)
    • Guard Goran Dragic
    • Guard David Duke (Restricted)
    • Forward/Center Lamarcus Aldridge
    • Forward/Center Nic Claxton
    • Forward/Center Blake Griffin

    Projected 2022-2023 Starting Lineup

    • PG Kyrie Irving
    • SG Joe Harris
    • SF Kevin Durant
    • PF Ben Simmons
    • C *Free Agent*

    The Brooklyn Nets season was tumultuous and disappointing at the very least. The organization still has championship aspirations, but it feels like their title window is getting smaller and smaller. This is an important off season for the Nets, with various moving pieces that needs to be put in place for them to be true contenders.

    Kyrie Irving has a player option and is eligible to sign for a 5-year SuperMax worth over $250 million dollars. All signs’ points to the Nets agreeing to this extension but is this the best move? Especially given the distraction caused by Irving this season and the lack of real effort displayed by Irving during their embarrassing first round sweep by the Celtics.

    A lot of weaknesses were exposed during the playoffs that the Nets will need to solidify during this offseason. Look for Brooklyn to shore up some front court depth as well as focus on wing versatility. The Nets are currently guard heavy and it was quite alarming to watch Dragic/Irving attempt to guard and rebound over Daniel Theis in the playoffs.

    I don’t expect many of the current free agents to be resigned during the offseason, especially Nic Claxton as he’s eligible for a 5-year $55 million extension that the Nets just simply can’t afford. Selfishly, I would love Sean Marks to attempt to sign Bruce Brown as he was the most consistent player on the Nets roster this season but like Claxton the Nets may not be able to afford him.

  • The NBA’s Dearly Departed-Denver Nuggets Edition 

    The NBA’s Dearly Departed-Denver Nuggets Edition 

    As teams in the NBA Playoffs get eliminated, Murphy’s Multiverse takes a look at their prospects for next season. The Denver Nuggets were just eliminated by the Golden State Warriors in 5 games. What will it take for them to take the next step?

    Notable Free Agents

    • Guard Austin Rivers
    • Center Demarcus Cousins
    • Forward/Center JaMychal Green (player option)

    Projected 2022-2023 Starting Lineup

    • PG Jamal Murray
    • SG Will Barton
    • SF Michael Porter Jr
    • PF Aaron Gordon
    • C Nikola Jokic

    The Nuggets will go into next season with the likely back-to-back MVP in center Nikola Jokic. Most importantly they will have a healthy Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. The goal should be to take the pressure off of Jokic to do everything as he’s had to this past season. Murray’s scoring ability and ball-handling will allow that to happen. MPJ will also take some of the scoring load as well and make this a better offense. Aaron Gordon will slide into an easier situation of being the fourth option as opposed to being the 2nd best player on the team. The question is will it be enough to contend for a title?

    Consider this, with what we saw against Golden State it’s fair to ask if this Nuggets defense can be good enough. Against any pick and roll-based offense, Nikola Jokic will be targeted. On the other hand, it’s Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole. That’s a unique set of talent and shooting. You always have to be careful in overreacting to the results as opposed to the process itself. Jamal Murray will be coming off of a torn ACL, and MPJ still has his back issues. You will have to work those guys in carefully and judiciously. 

    Offensively Nikola Jokic is a system unto himself. If you add the lost talent this year they’ll be fine on that end. Defensively will be a work in progress. Can they find an additional wing that can defend in bench lineups or in crunch time? Or how about MPJ stepping up to be a two-way player. Sometimes the best improvements are in-house, and there’s a path for Denver to be a threat to get to the Finals with the right moves. 

    All of this takes health, a little bit of luck, and consistency from your best players. The western conference will always be a challenge, but maybe soon enough the Nuggets will strike gold.

  • Western Conference Playoffs Notebook-The Young Ones Dueling  

    Western Conference Playoffs Notebook-The Young Ones Dueling  

    The most exciting series of the NBA Playoffs so far is the Memphis Grizzlies versus the Minnesota Timberwolves. Full of striking athleticism and tension on the court, we have a classic brewing.

    The Grizzlies and Wolves are headed back to Memphis for Game 5 after a 119-118 Wolves win to tie the series. Karl Towns scored 33 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in a huge effort to even things up. It’s a series full of incredible swings in momentum. In Game 3, the Wolves built separate 20 point leads only to lose them and the game. The Grizzlies used a 21-0 run spanning both third and fourth quarters to take control. The Wolves and their fans were shell shocked. They easily could’ve collapsed, if not for Towns and Anthony Edwards.

    It was the Wolves physicality in earning 40 free throw attempts that helped them tip the scales in Game 4. Both of these squads are young and sometimes can get out of control, which leads to mistakes. Those mistakes are turnovers and fouls, and the Grizzlies could not stop fouling. We can question the playoff officiating as Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins did here vorciferously.

    Granted, there are inconsistencies in the officiating but the Grizzlies have to be more under control. An important player like Jaren Jackson Jr is constantly in foul trouble(6 fouls in 23 minutes in Game 4) and it’s putting the Grizzlies in poor position to defend Karl Towns. With that foul trouble, Towns is seeing smaller defenders and getting easier opportunities to drive to the rim like here. Even in a crowd, Towns is too big and too strong to be deterred.

    Memphis really needs Ja Morant to play better. Whether it’s his sore knee or just poor play, we haven’t seen the dynamism he usually brings. Minnesota is attacking him relentlessly on defense. Patrick Beverley has been going by Ja all series for buckets or sucking in the defense for a better look. Bottom line, Morant has to be better on both ends of the floor.

    As the series reaches a critical juncture, Minnesota has fought their way to having a shot to win. Memphis Guard Desmond Bane has scored 60 points in the last two, and he’s going to need some more assistance as they go. That will have to come from Ja scoring the ball. Can he provide that? It’ll be interesting to see. If Minnesota can continue to be the more physical team we can see an upset. Game 5 looms very large as we head back to Memphis.

  • Eastern Conference Playoff Notebook

    Eastern Conference Playoff Notebook

    The NBA’s Eastern Conference Playoffs have been slightly disappointing with all series most likely ending in 5 or 6 games. To date, outside of the Brooklyn Vs. Boston series, all series have played 4 games. As we move on to the end of the first round, let’s look at the various story lines.

    The Boston Celtics Defense

    We all knew that the Celtics defense was going to be a problem for the Nets but I doubt anyone expected the Celtics to be leading 3-0 and expecting to sweep Brooklyn. The switch heavy Celtics have locked up Durant all series, forcing Durant to shoot 36% from the field (a steep drop compared to his 54% from the 2021 series). What’s the difference here? How is Boston able to achieve shutting down KD like this? Well, it’s the wing depth. Between Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford, Boston can easily switch onto Durant, quickly invading his shooting space, giving him very little space to get a clean jump shot off. It doesn’t help that the Nets are running very little back screens to even try to get KD clean looks. The consistent defensive intensity from almost everyone on the Celtics in a playoff setting is eye opening here and gives me confidence that the Celtics can make a real push here in the post season.

    Khris Middleton Injury

    Losing Khris Middleton early in the playoffs is a huge blow to the Bucks. It might not feel that way given their current opponent, but the impact will be felt if the Bucks face the Celtics in the second round. Without Middleton, the Celtics would be able to swarm Giannis, making him work for every bucket he makes. The Celtics will settle for open Bobby Portis shots if that means Giannis will be uncomfortable the whole game. The Bucks will have to make adjustments to deal with the intensity of Boston’s never-ending lineup of switchable, defensive, and athletic forwards. The Bucks coach, Mike Budenholzer is not known for making many adjustments mid series, so it will be interesting to follow how the Bucks adjust to the Celtics defense without Middleton’s extra offensive punch.

    How Far Can Embiid Go?

    Joel Embiid is currently playing with a thumb ligament tear…yeah, you read that right. Joel Embiid is playing with a ligament tear and has no plans to sit out the playoffs. The plan here is to get surgery after the playoffs and fight through the pain with the hopes of bringing the championship to Philly. This is commendable-if not silly and dangerous to his career, but still commendable. I understand the mentality as it feels like the championship window for Philadelphia is quickly closing here but it will be interesting to see if this injury gets worst or if this will have a long term impact to Joel’s NBA career

  • Western Conference Playoff Notebook

    Western Conference Playoff Notebook

    The NBA’s Western Conference Playoffs have been fascinating. To date, all series have played 2 games. As each series shifts cities, let’s take a look at some of the most important stories so far.

    The High Octane Warriors

    There was some concern that Steph Curry wouldn’t be healthy for the postseason. Through 2 games, Steph has come off the bench but it has not mattered. The Golden State Warriors have thoroughly embarrassed the Denver Nuggets. 

    In our preview, we talked about Denver being able to defend in space being a key to the series. A lot of that involved targeting Nikola Jokic. The reigning MVP is an improved defender, but when you can repeatedly put him in pick and roll every action, you’re bound to find cracks.

    For example, The Warriors are great at using other teams’ inclination to ignore Green on the perimeter against them. Jeff Green turns his back on Draymond, pick and roll with Jokic in the action, slow rotation and Draymond gets an easy dunk.

    Golden State has used Draymond at center in a lineup with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins for 11 minutes in the first two games. They are a +29 on the court. Draymond has shut down Jokic 1 on 1 and has made it extremely hard for Denver to get anything done offensively.

    The Nuggets have yet to play a home game but it does feel like a series that won’t be long. Expect Denver’s best effort in Game 3 but that may not be enough the way Golden State is playing. They are systematically breaking down Denver and you hope they will respond with the requisite effort.

    The Big Injuries

    With Phoenix Suns star guard Devin Booker now out with a strained hamstring, there are two big injuries looming over the West playoffs. Booker’s hammy joins Luka Doncic’s calf, which has the Dallas Mavericks in a dog fight with the Utah Jazz. Both Suns/Pelicans and Mavericks/Jazz are tied at a game apiece but feel like different series.

    It’s been the same song for the Utah Jazz. Chemistry issues, defensive breakdowns at the point of attack and rough the fourth quarter in Game 2 have them asking the same questions. Should they keep Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert together? Why are they struggling this much? It’s 1-1 and they’re not the team with home court and yet it feels like they’re down.

    With Luka Doncic now listed as questionable for Game 3, his sudden inclusion into the series might be able to tip the scales for Dallas. They’ve played admirably so far, getting a 41-point performance from guard Jalen Brunson

    After only scoring 34 points in the 1st half of Game 1, it feels like the New Orleans Pelicans have found their game. Brandon Ingram got it going in Game 2(37 points, 11 rebounds, 9 assists) and their supporting cast stepped up. Injuries do happen, but you still have to take advantage and that’s what New Orleans did. Now they have a shot to turn this series into something real competitive with their 125-114 victory.

    With Booker set to miss at least the next two games, a lot more will be placed on Chris Paul. CP3 had the great fourth quarter in Game 1, but he’s going to need more help. Center Deandre Ayton is going to have to assert himself more in Booker’s absence. The Suns are more than capable of winning this series, but now it feels like they have less of a margin for error.

    Tweaks and Adjustments

    After the Minnesota Timberwolves were so successful in Game 1 against the Memphis Grizzlies, there needed to be a change. Head coach Taylor Jenkins made that adjustment, only playing center Steven Adams 3 minutes. Wolves center Karl Anthony Towns had his way with Adams in Game 1 and after Adams picked up two immediate fouls we never saw him again.

    The Grizzlies as good as Ja Morant, but are also defined by their deep roster. Jaren Jackson Jr. switched onto Towns and was able to have an impact defensively. Xavier Tillman came off the bench with 13 points and 7 boards in 21 minutes. It didn’t help that Towns was in foul trouble but it was a great effort from the Grizzlies to adjust.

    Going into Game 3, we’ll see if the Wolves can get D’Angelo Russell going and regain control. This is an interesting spot for Memphis being a team not big on playoff experience, and same for Minnesota as well. The West continues to shift, and we’ll find out who comes out when the smoke is cleared. 

  • NBA Playoff Preview: the Eastern Conference

    NBA Playoff Preview: the Eastern Conference

    The 21/22 season has been an interesting one as 10 teams ended their season with a positive record. This should make for multiple compelling series as a lot of these teams are closer than people may realize.

    2) Boston Celtics Vs. 7) Brooklyn Nets

    Tale of the Tape: The Nets were able to defeat Darius Garland and the Cavs to secure the 7th seed, but the victory did reveal issues that they will need to work on if they plan on winning their series against the Celtics. The Nets best defender is Kevin Durant, who also happens to be their best offensive player. Durant is an amazing weak side defender, meeting his opponents at the rim after they blow by the Nets perimeter defenders (which happens fairly often). In order for the Nets to stand a chance in this series, they’ll have to rely on more than just Durant and Bruce Brown to make defensive reads.

    Another issue for the Nets will be how they manage Durant and Irving’s minutes throughout this series. The Nets 2nd unit is awful and is typically the culprit whenever the Nets blow large leads. Nash has tried staggering Durant and Irving so that Irving is the primary decision maker whenever the 2nd unit comes in, but that has had a negative impact as the Nets are better with Irving and Durant consistently together. I can see a scenario in which the Nets pull a Tom Thibodeau and play Durant and Irving 45+ minutes in order to stay in contention throughout the series.

    Key Matchup: Kevin Durant Vs. Boston Celtics Defense

    The Celtics, who ended the season with the top defensive rating in the league, are no slouch of an opponent for Kevin Durant. The Celtics are loaded with guards who fight over screens and pressure the ball handler (Marcus Smart), as well as bigs who can read pick and roll plays as well as rotate over to contest shots (Al Horford and Robert Williams). The Celtics game plan is to pressure Kevin Durant and make every shot as difficult as possible. They’re not going to stop him, but the plan should be to get the ball out of his hands as much as possible. The Celtics will settle for open threes from secondary role players if that means Kevin is out of rhythm. Throughout the season, that has proven to be the most successful strategy against the Nets as outside of Durant and Irving, as there’s a a deficit of shot creators on the team.

    Prediction: The Celtics defense is extremely impressive, with veteran players who knows how to set the tone in a playoff series from a defensive standpoint. The Nets can’t withstand the pressure that the Celtics will apply. Celtics in 6.

    3) Milwaukee Bucks Vs. Chicago Bulls

    Tale of the Tape: This is a tough series to get as the Bulls have two stats that tells very different stories. The Bulls have the worst record against winning teams. They ended March 0 and 16 against the top three teams from each conference. This should tell us that they bully bad teams and fold against good ones, which means that they’re in line for a very early exit from the Playoffs. As I dug deeper, it occurred to me that DeMar Derozan is 4th in clutch scoring and holds a 122.2 offensive rating in clutch situations. This makes it hard to bet against a team who seems equipped to handle the intensity of a playoff series when it feels like every possession is a clutch situation.

    Key Matchup: Zach LaVine Vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo

    This is a very important series for Zach LaVine, given that he’s a free agent in the off-season and that this will be his first time playing in the post season. He has a lot to prove if he plans on getting offered a max contract. LaVine has gotten better as a defender over the years, but this will be his true test as he’ll share defending duties on Antetokounmpo with second year player Patrick Williams. Giannis is obviously unstoppable, but all eyes will be on how LaVine handles guarding the reining finals MVP. The Bulls will throw a lot of schemes on Giannis to try to low him down but my eyes will be on how “relaxed” or “pressured” Giannis looks against these Bulls.

    Prediction: The success of the Bulls season was a welcomed surprise and it honestly put a smile on my face to see all of the recognition that Derozan got this year but Bulls are out of their element here. Bucks in 5.

    4) Philadelphia 76ers Vs. 5) Toronto Raptors

    Tale of the Tape: It’s been widely speculated that the 76ers have been trying to stay away from the top two seeds as they wanted to avoid playing the Nets in a series. They should have been trying to avoid the Raptors as they’re best equipped to upset Philadelphia. It doesn’t help that it feels as though James Harden is on the down swing. The explosiveness is not there anymore, neither is his ability to beat anyone off of the dribble. He’s settling for three pointers, which has been his bread and butter but he’s not able to get the same separation from his jab steps due to his lack of quickness.

    Key Matchup: James Harden Vs. Toronto’s Length

    Joel Embiid will be dominant and will get his numbers, but I will be very curious to see how Harden handles the length of the Raptors. Toronto’s President of Basketball Operations, Masai Ujiri, built a roster filled with forwards with long wingspans in a gamble that long, tall, and athletic wings make for winning rosters. Harden is generally bothered by lengthy forwards as they limit his ability to get to the rim and draw calls.

    Prediction: I’m expecting this to be a close series and I continue to go back and forth on who I believe will ultimately win here. The length and athleticism of the Raptors will be too much for Philly, with the Raptors winning in 7.

    1) Miami Heat Vs. 8) Atlanta Hawks

    Take of the Tape: The Hawks are bad defensively, like really, REALLY bad defensively. Blown rotations, guards dying on screens, and no one being able to defend the point of attack is normal for the Hawks. They live and die by wether or not Trae Young is hitting his shots and is able to find open teammates. Effort from the defensive end will tell the story on if Atlanta can make this a series.

    Key Matchup: Trae Young Vs. Tyler Herro

    Atlanta isn’t winning this series but I look forward to watching these two young and confident guards break down defenders and hit open threes. Miami moves at a slow pace and with their defense I don’t expect Atlanta to light it up as they usually do. My hope is that Young and Herro is emboldened to lead and jack up shots so that this is a semi-fun series .

    Prediction: Atlanta doesn’t have a chance here. I’m giving them one game here due to Young’s ability to will his team victory’s. Atlanta’s defense is just terrible. Miami in 5.

  • NBA Playoff Preview:The Western Conference 

    NBA Playoff Preview:The Western Conference 

    The Western Conference playoffs are filled with a ton of questions. Unfortunately a few of these questions are injury related. A couple of these series may be defined by if stars are available to play effectively or generally play. Let’s take a look at how these series can and will shake out.

    2.) Memphis Grizzlies vs. 7) Minnesota Timberwolves

    Tale Of The Tape:  The Timberwolves outlasted the Clippers in the play-in game this past Tuesday night. Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell picked up the slack for Karl Anthony Towns as the pair scored 30 and 29 points respectively. The Clippers were successful in frustrating KAT as he fouled out in 24 minutes with 3/11 shooting. If anything, this might’ve been a great lesson for the Wolves.

    Towns should absolutely play better during this upcoming series and this game gives him an idea of what type of defenses he might see against the Grizzlies. More importantly Anthony Edwards came through with a star worthy performance on his biggest stage to date. The Wolves have to be feeling good but they have quite the challenge ahead.

    To put into perspective how good the Memphis Grizzlies have been, on November 26th they were 9-10. Since then they’ve been 47-16 and one of the most dominant teams in basketball. Led by dynamic point guard Ja Morant-and even without him-the Grizz have been playing with supreme confidence. They’re 4th in offense and 5th in defense. They have youth, athleticism, toughness, and good coaching on their side. They’re boastful trash talkers, ready for all comers. Now we find out if experience matters as they enter the playoffs.

    Key Matchup: The Timberwolves defense vs Ja Morant

    Ja Morant exploding to the rim is the most exciting play in the NBA. He’s a powerful finisher with a devastating first step. However, he has had some knee issues and missed a good chunk of time this season. Now that he’s back we’ll find out soon what that’s gonna look like. With his ability to get to the rim, improving jump shot and passing the Timberwolves have a chore on their hands. Cut off the head of the snake, and make the other Grizzlies beat you as good as they’ve been.

    Here Ja splits the trap and once he does that he’s a blur to the rim. Minnesota is going to have to trap harder if they’re going to have a chance to contain him.

    Even when you fight through the screen like D’Angelo Russell does here, Morant adjusts. Gets another screen from Adams and gets his floater game going.

    Prediction: Neither of these teams have a ton of playoff experience, and Minnesota played the Grizzlies tough during the season series. When it’s all said and done, the consistency of the Grizzlies will shine through. There’ll be some hotly contested games, but Memphis will win this series in 6 games.

    3.) Golden State Warriors vs 6.) Denver Nuggets 

    Tale Of The Tape: Superstar Steph Curry has been out for the last few weeks with a sprained ligament in his left foot. There is no official word on whether he will play in Game 1 on Saturday evening. This injury could fundamentally change the series if Curry is hampered or misses any significant time. When healthy, the Warriors present a lot of different issues for defenses. As Klay Thompson has now been back for awhile and Draymond Green has worked his rust off, we’ll see what this team looks like fully actualized. The Steph part of it is so important.

    The Denver Nuggets have done a lot of surviving this season. Without star guard Jamal Murray and sharpshooter Michael Porter Jr, they’ve relied heavily on the reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic (27.1 ppg 13.8 rpg 7.9 apg)has been even better this season, contending for back to back MVPs as the offensive hub. From a numbers standpoint and an eye test perspective, this is one of the greatest offensive seasons in the history of the league. Jokic has taken steps forward defensively shedding the label of being a sieve. He’s going to need help in this series.

    Whether it’s made shots or intangible plays the other Nuggets are going to have to step up. Aaron Gordon and Will Barton are at the top of the list in that department. If the Nuggets get any substantial offensive contributions from those guys it changes the series.

    Key To The Series: Denver defending the Warriors off the ball vs how they defend them in pick and roll.

    Draymond Green did not play in the season series. His screening and passing allows Steph, Klay, and Jordan Poole to get easy shots in space. How Denver chooses to guard Green will be telling. Will they lay off of him as most teams do? It’s an interesting choice that lies ahead. Assuming Steph plays, there’ll be opportunities to put Jokic in actions in pick and roll. Playing drop coverage against Steph usually means death, so how much can Jokic stay at or get to the level of the screener?

    It’s the ability of Curry to move without the ball here that gets him a good look. He just needs a bit of daylight. Your rotations can’t be slow as Jeff Green is here. Once Austin Rivers rotates to the corner Steph is open and you’re cooked.

    Here Jokic gets to the level of the screen and this is where rotating and getting back can be an issue for him. Curry gets the ball on the trap to Looney who finds Wiggins cutting to the basket. Those rotations make the difference between a quick series and a long one. With Draymond back, those decisions become quicker and deadly.

    The Prediction: Curry’s health notwithstanding this feels like a Golden State victory. Their depth and their defense will be huge here. Guarding Nikola Jokic is a challenge but with Denver not having worthy threats to shift the defense. The Nuggets need to be able to force the Warriors to think and make harder choices and that seems unlikely to happen. Will this change if Jamal Murray plays? Maybe, but the Warriors will win this in 5.

    4.) Dallas Mavericks vs 5)Utah Jazz

    Tale Of The Tape: The biggest story here is Luka Doncic’s left calf. On the last night of the regular season he hurt it and now his availability for Game 1 is up in the air. As of Thursday there has been no update on his status. The Mavs have played very well and sustained that since January. Their formula is Luka’s drive and kick game and the 6th ranked defense. Ever since they made the mid season trade to add Spencer Dinwiddie, some of the pressure has been taken off of Luka offensively. If Luka is hampered or out, it’ll be on Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson to provide a facsimile of that production.

    The Utah Jazz have had a tough season. Injuries, infighting, and blown leads have pushed the organization to the precipice. The buzzards are circling and this could be the end of this team as we know them. Can Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell show us something different? This is their best opportunity with Luka hobbled. It will take a team effort to get this done.

    Key to the series: Luka vs Rudy.

    The book is out on the Utah Jazz in the playoffs. With their perimeter defense being suspect as it is, there’ll be a lot of pick and roll switches with Luka (or insert primary ball handler) and Rudy Gobert. If Rudy can hold is own and make those possessions stall or just make the shots difficult this gives Utah a chance for success in the series.

    Sometimes Luka is just too good. Rudy’s in drop coverage and the probing from Luka allows Powell to slip to the rim.

    Here Luka has a shooting big on the floor in Kleber and because of the attention Doncic gets you have to give up something. In this case its a wide open Kleber 3.

    We have a one on one battle! Gobert locks in, stays with Luka and gets a good contest to force the miss. It will be a chess match. Can the Jazz perimeter defense hold up against such a unique talent?

    The Prediction: Luka’s calf looms over the series. If he’s healthy I like the Mavs comfortably. If he’s not, then the Jazz definitely have a chance to win. Donovan Mitchell has been a really good postseason player, and he can wreck a series on his own. Official prediction, Mavs in 6.

    1.) Phoenix Suns vs 8)New Orleans Pelicans

    Tale Of The Tape: Simply put, the Phoenix Suns have been the best team in basketball all season. Double digit winning streaks, a deep roster, and a dominant offense and defense have the Suns primed to make a title run. After a 64 win season, their time is now. They have home court throughout the playoffs, and everyone is healthy. 

    Guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker lead a fantastic starting lineup, which arguably is the best in the league. Ace defender Mikail Bridges is a Jack of all trades defender, Jae Crowder is a dependable small ball four and emerging center Deandre Ayton continues to evolve every season.

    The question here is, do the Pelicans have a chance to win this series? The odds would say no, off of a quick turn around on the road Friday night to start this series in Phoenix. What can they do to make this series more difficult?

    Key Matchup: Pelicans bigs vs Deandre Ayton

    Ayton this season has added more tricks in the bag. He can roll to the rim, he has a jump hook, and he’s even stepped out to hit threes above the break. We expect the guards and wings on both sides to have offensive impact in this series, but the bigs will be fun. If Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance can at the minimum make Ayton work, perhaps the Pelicans can make this competitive.

    This is not how you make things competitive. A Devin Booker led pick and roll is hard enough to defend, now you have Ayton rolling to the basket. These slips are so simple yet deadly.

    Ayton now works better in traffic too, as he gets a jump hook off in a bit of a crowded space. These are things he couldn’t do a couple of seasons ago.

    Jonas is able to catch Ayton here rolling to the rim. There will be so much attention devoted to CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram that they’ll need that pressure release valve. Jonas can be that if he can have an impact against Deandre.

    The Prediction: The Suns will take this seriously but the Pelicans can definitely get a game. They’ve been playing very well for quite awhile and it’s amazing they’ve gotten to this point. The Suns however will win this. Too balanced, too ready, too good. Suns in 5.

  • NBA Play-In Preview: Western Conference 

    NBA Play-In Preview: Western Conference 

    As the Phoenix Suns and the Memphis Grizzlies wait for their first round opponents, we have three fascinating games to determine them. Each of these four teams have had a heck of a journey to get here, but now it comes down to execution.

    (7) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (8) Los Angeles Clippers

    Tale Of The Tape: The Wolves have been the 8th most efficient offense in the league this season. Led by Karl Anthony Towns (24.6 PPG 9.8 RPG 3.6 APG), they move the ball with precision and can shoot the three very well. They also attempt the most threes in the league. Being 13th in defensive efficiency is quite the improvement for coach Chris Finch, and this is a great final exam. The Clippers are a veteran laden, deep, and tough team. Their experience is an advantage here.

    The Clippers have had a ton of injuries this season, but with superstar Paul George back they have a chance here to make a run. We can disregard their 24th ranked offense because of the injuries, but a constant has been their 8th ranked defense. Coach Tyronn Lue will certainly be throwing out all types of different defenses at Minnesota to limit Towns and growing star Anthony Edwards.

    Key Matchup: The Clippers defending Karl Anthony Towns.

    3 of the 4 matchups between these teams took place in November and the final one in January so it’s going to look a lot different now. One thing Coach Lue likes to do is throw out different looks against opposing offenses. He’s a tactician of the highest degree. To start off this game he attempts to throw the Wolves off with zone and gets a turnover.

    A few possessions later, the Wolves get going as center Ivica Zubac falls asleep on KAT popping out for a 3. That can’t happen. Expect if Zubac is not effective early we see a switch heavy wing contingent from the Clippers. If the Clippers can get the Wolves tentative and meandering around the perimeter, this is their best chance. If the Wolves are swinging the ball around, it’s a tall task to stop their offense.

    The Prediction: The one thing that should concern Minnesota is their defense in a game like this. The Clippers have a habit of playing great in the fourth quarter. Paul George and Reggie Jackson have both been willing ball movers and they have the shooting to space the floor. Will experience come into play here? Minnesota has had a great season, but I’ll go with the battle tested Clippers here. 

    (9) New Orleans Pelicans vs. (10) San Antonio Spurs

    Tale Of The Tape: Its remarkable to think of where both of these teams came from. The Pelicans started the season 3-16. Zion Williamson hasn’t played at all this season with a foot injury, and no one knows what will happen going forward. The team itself made a trade for sharpshooting guard CJ McCollum and teaming him with Brandon Ingram has made the Pelicans a formidable foe. They’ve gotten contributions from guys like Herb Jones, and center Jonas Valanciunas. What a turnaround for them to get here.

    The San Antonio Spurs probably weren’t even trying to make the Play-In. They traded guard Derrick White at the deadline and have continued to look to build towards their future. Guard Dejounte Murray (21.1 ppg 8.3 rpg 9.2 apg) has had an excellent season. They have their star going forward. 

    Key Matchup: Spurs defense vs CJ McCollum 

    The Spurs are middle of the pack in defense (ranked 16th) and at the point of attack will have to stop CJ or at least limit his effectiveness. He’s just a difficult player to key in on as he can get to his spots off the dribble and is crafty getting others involved. Here as it’s late in the shot clock on a scramble play he’s able to get in the lane for a floater. 

    On another possession he’s able to come off a curl to get free for a jumper. The ability to move off the ball is just as important as being on ball. CJ McCollum is as tough as they come.

    The Prediction: It’s hard for me to see the Spurs win this game. Expect the Pelicans to get enough from CJ and Ingram on offense to win here. If the Spurs can win the battle of the boards they’ll be able to keep it close. Taking New Orleans in a comfortable double digit win.

  • NBA Play-In Preview: Eastern Conference

    NBA Play-In Preview: Eastern Conference

    Brooklyn vs. Cleveland

    The first game on Tuesday should be an interesting one as the offensive powerhouse Nets will be playing a top 5 defense in the Cavaliers. Momentum has not been on the Cavs side lately as they have lost 8 of their last 11 games, which includes games against sub-.500 teams such as the Magic and Lakers. The loss of Jarrett Allen had a huge impact on the Cavs defense which was their bread and butter all season. A lot is riding on rookie Evan Mobley to solidify the Cavs interior defense against Irving and the Nets. I expect the Nets to win here as the Cavs have not recovered from the Allen injury.

    Atlanta vs. Charlotte

    Expect this game to be a high scoring one, as both Atlanta and Charlotte are high on the offensive rating but extremely low on the defensive one. The key matchup here is Trae Young vs. LaMelo Ball, two dynamic point guards with the confidence and freedom to dictate the flow of the game. I don’t think with either team will ultimately impact the playoffs as their poor defense will probably make them early first round exits, but this may be the most exciting play in game to watch as no defense will be played. Given Trae’s recent strong offensive performance, I expect Atlanta to win.