The numbers are in and Thor: Love and Thunder has faced quite the harsh drop going into its second weekend. Reports have stated that the latest Marvel film has plunged by around 80% after a bombastic opening last weekend. The domestic box office is showing its fangs with pretty much every production with one exception, Top Gun: Maverick, has faced similar drops. Even Minions: The Rise of Gru faced a harsh 70% drop on its second Friday.
This marks the second highest drop for any Marvel film, as it’s around 2% ahead of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which fell from a $91M Friday. The current drop is closer to what Black Widow faced when it was released last year on June 29th and November’s Eternals (75%). So, the film is likely to wrap up around $45M and pull in $233M in its first ten days.
Any other franchise, as Forbes’ Scott Mendelsohn points out, this would be a strong second weekend but it is simply a record for a Marvel production. The question is if it’ll avoid the $100M loser club after opening to $144M. It’ll likely pass $500M worldwide by tomorrow but with some key markets also slowing down, anything can go for now. Even Jurassic World: Dominion saw a 73% drop and it had an A- CinemaScore while critics weren’t thrilled with the project.
Is this the “end of Marvel” as many like to call any non-record breaking box office opening for their films? Not really, as it continues a trend we’re still seeing throughout the pandemic with bigger blockbusters. $13.8M is lower than Minions’ second weekend at $14.43M but that isn’t an indicator. Frontloading has become a new norm and the B+ Cinemascore simply points to people enjoying their first watch, but in no hurry to do so again.
What works in its favor is that there’s no real competition moving forward outside of late July’s DC League of Super-Pets which likely is going to focus on a much younger crowd. Even with a 1.35x multiplier, the film would still end up around $315M which is around the same as Thor: Ragnarok. The only risk factor is the Disney+ release but Doctor Strange didn’t slow down too much still pulling in $34M after its release. That film faced the same CinemaScore and 45 digital release window but still managed to leg out to $950M.
Most films in this era for Marvel have had harsh drops and the pandemic is still an issue for some. So, people are much more selective about what film they’ll watch or spend money on. Korea has seen Top Gun take back the top spot where it’s been performing exceptionally well like in many other markets. While the film won’t pass The Batman at this rate, it’s a good sign such different projects can pull in very different numbers.