You might read the title of this article and denounce Avatar: The Way of Water‘s chances at reaching a billion, as the film is now set to only hit the lower end of expectations at around $150M, though it could go as low as $130M depending on how it tracks over the weekend. We’ve seen this countless times throughout 2022 that the predictions aren’t as accurate as they once were and models have been struggling to really pinpoint where the needle is moving in regards to audience interest.
As of now, the film has pulled in $53M domestically with another $127M worldwide. With $180.1M worldwide it’s definitely tracking among the best of the year and with the Holidays around the corner, it’ll leg out quite a bit over the next few weeks without any real competition. It’s international release is also enjoying that additional Chinese box office that many other big blockbusters haven’t had a chance to enjoy but it comes at a time where COVID is running rampant in that country once again.
Also, we can’t forget that three hour runtime and its impact on viewership, especially when you’re going to invest time to sit there that long in a 3D film. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was also on the longer side which affected its box office run early on with less showtimes. Either way, the film has definitely going to pass or even double 2009’s $77M domestic opening but the question remains if it’ll have the legs it needs. It’s opening around the same as Top Gun: Maverick which ended up legging out to an impressive $1.49B. Though, the film might need to do quite a bit more to prove successful given its massive budget.
Source: Hollywood Reporter