The fourth entry of the John Wick franchise is almost upon us and the early tracking is looking at a promising high-opening weekend that could land anywhere between $60M to $70M. It would continue a strong tentpole spring market that saw some massive openings with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (ignoring its overall legs, it still is February’s third-highest opening ever), this weekend’s performance of Creed 3 and some surprise players like Cocaine Bear.
John Wick: Chapter 4 may have lost its additional subtitle, but it’s still set for a strong weekend once it releases. Pandemic numbers are still shaky to predict as most box office openings are given mostly conservative estimates; especially by studios. There’s also the factor of a fourth entry in a film commonly being a big question mark for most.
Still, the film is expected to be higher than Parabellum, which opened at $56.8M and managed to leg out to $171M. Worldwide it was the highest grossing of the franchise at around $585M. The appeal of these films seems to be with an otherwise dormant older audience that loves the appeal of this grounded action spectacle, similar to the audience that showed up for Top Gun: Maverick throughout its impressive leggy run. It’ll be interesting if that same appeal will remain for the spinoff Ballerina.