It’s going to be an exciting weekend for counterprogramming, as while Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is still expected to dominate the weekend, we have two projects trying to make an impression going into the weekend. The one with everyone’s eyes on it is the dark comedy Cocaine Bear directed by Elizabeth Banks (not a joke).
It’s already off to a strong start with $2M in its Thursday previews. It also has a strong 82% on Rotten Tomatoes with a PostTrak of four stars. It’s likely to join the B horror CinemaScore club alongside M3GAN, which was a standout release earlier this year as counter-programming.
It should also be noted that the film is higher than Violent Night‘s $1.1.M which managed to grow to $49.8M in the States but not quite M3GAN‘s $2.75M in previews. The former had a strong $13M opening while M3GAN pulled in a 30M opening weekend. So, a potential $20M does seem possible though most predictions still have it at around $15M to $17M. Still, the film based on a true story (also no joke) is going to make a splash at the box office an continue Universal’s steady release of mid-range films pulling strong numbers during the pandemic.
The only other big opening this weekend is the faith-based Jesus Revolution. It stands at a five-star PostTrak and it has pulled in $2M in its Wednesday previews and added $940K on Thursday. So, it technically pulled in $3.3M since Wednesday but it’ll likely end the weekend at $10M.
Still, all eyes are on how Quantumania will perform in its second weekend, as while it already stands at $135M domestically, it did not have a robust week after a rather sturdy $14.2M Presidents Day Monday. So, either most of its audiences showed up on the extended weekend and that is why it took a hit, but it dropped to $3.8M on Wednesday and $3.7M this Thursday.
As of now, expectations range from $35M to $40M which would still be in the usual 60%+ drop for Marvel films that we’ve seen with many others. Box Office pro currently projects around $38M which would be a 64% drop, not the worst in Marvel history. The Friday box office will be the clear indicator of where the film will land. Either way, it’s still expected to hold the top spot for the weekend.
Source: Deadline, Hollywood Reporter, Variety, Box Office Pro