It’s looking like the opening weekends are continuing to average at around $70M, as another film is joining that club in Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. After The Flash was initially projected with that box office opening, the recent boost for Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse may be a hopeful sign that there’s a bit more momentum building up for bigger releases that have been surprisingly mellow throughout the year. Though, the amount of competition in a post-pandemic world might be doing more harm than good for individual releases.
Still, the return of Indiana Jones is set to be a big move forward as the final entry for Harrison Ford as the iconic character. So, perhaps a $60M to $70M opening isn’t quite what Disney was looking for given the nostalgia factor was a big driver throughout the last few major releases. It’s on par with the pandemic release of No Time to Die and Mission: Impossible – Fallout, but those had to compete in a very different market.
The big question mark is that without a bigger marketing push, this film will open below 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. That was around $100M across three days but even with conservative predictions, it’s a bit of a headscratcher given how off some have been as of late. The big problem is that Indiana Jones‘ latest entry is expensive at a staggering $295M, which means the film needs to at least make $600M just to cover its production costs. Even with good legs, it might look like it’s a loss for Lucasfilm.