There’s been a lot of debate on the success of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at the box office, mostly due to it ending up lower than Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Many believed this might be the sign that Marvel won’t have a billion hit this year, but the box office is quite fiscal and there are many more elements at play. All eyes are currently on its second weekend to see how the film holds with a $181M opening weekend, especially after the previous two Marvel Studios releases have hit some sharp drops.
As of now, it seems that predictions have the film opening to $72M with upwards of $80M also a possibility. Any drop between 55% to 60% would be seen as a major win and a great showcase of that A CinemaScore the film scored in comparison to other Marvel titles of the year. The pandemic hasn’t been kind to most releases and with only a few exceptions really catapulting beyond expectations, mostly Top Gun: Maverick, Marvel has been the most dominant sure-fire opening scorer at the box office.
The film did end up going lower on Monday than even Thor: Love and Thunder as it pulled in $11M but did tick up to $12.6M on Tuesday. Yet, the film also isn’t a summer release like the previous two Marvel films which makes a world of difference when it comes to its performance during the week. Plus, it’s a much longer film than previous entries which also means fewer available screenings per day playing a key factor in its performance. So, it’s still hard to say how the weekend goes but predictions have been difficult even s the pandemic slowed down, as we’re seeing more variation in how films perform. Even with that, it’s likely to reach $400M worldwide in no time.
The original Black Panther had a very impressive 44.7% decline and it’s unclear to say this film could do the same. It doesn’t have the coveted A+ CinemaScore its previous iteration had and it also had a smaller opening, not too surprising given the challenges this film had to face and the new release slot. It’s only the seventh film to pass $200M domestically and that is definitely a good sign for Marvel Studios, as it pushed Disney passed $3B total gross for the year, beating last year. With little competition until Avatar: The Way of Water in mid-December, the film could have a chance at proving its legs to at least close in on a billion. If predictions are right, it has a decent chance but anything can change once the weekend rolls around.