Not all is sunny with the latest release by Marvel Studios, as while it did manage to release in its predicted release window at $104M domestically over three days. The big surprise is a softer release internationally at $121.3M. As of now, the film is 13% ahead of the first Ant-Man internationally but 27% below its sequel Ant-Man and the Wasp. Yet, the big reasoning here is that it had a very soft Chinese opening at 19M, which is quite a bit further away from the predicted $35M to $55M. It seems that it did receive a similar score to that of the first Ant-Man but was lower on another score.
Rotten Tomatoes soft score didn’t help and if you add in factors like a tired box office after Chinese New Year and a general lack of interest in Hollywood productions, it’s going to be a tough battle for the film in that market. We also can’t forget that Marvel films have been banned since 2019 and it was going to be an uphill battle no matter what was released in that market. Deadline also points out one rather interesting aspect: science-fiction has major troubles in Asia Pacific markets as even Star Wars has trouble establishing itself in these markets.
South Korea seems to have a similar development with these types of films, which doesn’t help matters much as both were key markets in the last two films’ releases. Still, Australia and European markets are performing ahead of the last two releases and could make up for the softer Asian release, but it does seem unlikely that the film will pass Ant-Man and the Wasp‘s global box office at this rate. It could have a chance at around $550M to $600M depending if that B CinemaScore will not overshadow any potential legs. The drop in the next weekend will give us a clearer picture.