Here’s a surprise but it seems the summer tentpoles are showing quite a bit of a slowdown. The Little Mermaid is heading to a strong $120M+ opening weekend over Memorial Day, which puts it at $100M over three days. That is slightly behind the other Disney releases Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantmania but still a strong opening if the film has legs like the previous Guardians film.
Yet, the rest of the box office is looking a little lukewarm so far. Fast X made a huge splash internationally but is slowing down quite a bit domestically at $67.5M. Even the return of the former box office champion isn’t really lighting up the box office’s engine with Transformers: Rise of the Beasts tracking for a soft $40M in early projection. Yet, it seems some other hopefuls aren’t showing that momentum many hoped for this year.
The Flash is currently heading for $70M. It’s quite a bit lower than what Warner Bros. Discovery is banking on given that they used all of Shazam: Fury of the Gods‘ marketing budget on this film that they are pushing as “the best superhero film of all time.” The question remains if it’ll have strong word-of-mouth and legs afterward. If it offers what is promised, it does have a good chance but it’s still far from where you’d want your $250M+ film to open.
There’s also the depressing development of Pixar’s box office due to the Disney+ releases throughout the last few years. Elemental is looking at a $40M similar to Transformers, which would put it on track with Onward and The Good Dinosaur but even Ratatouille managed to become a success with a soft $47M. They just need to hope that old momentum carries over.