Tom Cruise has always been a box office draw, and it looks like that isn’t going to change anytime soon. According to early estimates, Top Gun: Maverick is on its way to a weekend opening of $92M to beyond $100M stateside. It also would add up to another $80M internationally, which would put its opening weekend at $180M worldwide.
The film is being described as a “five-quad” movie that is expected to become an aggressively overperforming title, especially as older men are open to checking the film out. Paramount has taken a smart strategy by promoting the film over the course of the last month, especially when it was previewed at CinemaCon to get exhibitors excited for what’s to come. It also left a splash at the Cannes Film Festival, where Cruise received a surprise Palme D’or.
The film will also receive the widest release in the United States since The Lion King in 2019. China and Russia aren’t in the mix, which puts its development towards beating the actor’s previous biggest worldwide opening with The Mummy at $172.3M. It’s also considered an award season contender, which echoes similarly how Dune was a “blockbuster release that isn’t quite a blockbuster” in the eyes of the Academy.
It’s great for Tom Cruise‘s career and most likely will help boost the way they tackle his upcoming Mission: Impossible films in the promotion as well. Cruise has made a career out of single-handily pushing his films in a way that others can’t due to his position which is quite admirable but also highlights the exception rather than the rule. Having his biggest opening weekend with a legacy title like this does bode well for other films to enter the market in a big way.